VOTA: Vote Outcome Transfer-based Algorithm

Applies the central electoral projection algorithm with corrections of abstention, new voters and redistribution of undecided voters to the probability transfer matrix.

Usage

vota(
  mt_simplificada,
  tiempo_entre_elecciones = 4,
  factor_correccion_abstencion = 3,
  factor_correccion_jovenes = 2.5,
  factor_correccion_otbl = 2.5,
  retoques = NULL,
  small_parties = NULL,
  votos_ant
)

Arguments

mt_simplificada

Data frame with transfer matrix with columns recuerdo, idv, transfer

tiempo_entre_elecciones

Years between elections for demographic adjustments (default 4)

factor_correccion_abstencion

Abstention correction factor (default 3)

factor_correccion_jovenes

New voters correction factor (default 2.5)

factor_correccion_otbl

Other blank/null votes correction factor (default 2.5)

retoques

Optional data frame with manual adjustments (column votos_adicionales)

small_parties

Optional data frame with small party votes

votos_ant

Data frame with previous electoral results (column votos_ant)

Value

Data frame with national vote estimates by party

Details

The VOTA algorithm implements the following corrections:

1. Abstention correction: adjusts votes from those who abstained in previous elections

2. New voters correction: adjusts votes from those not of age in previous elections

3. Undecided redistribution: distributes according to transfer patterns the votes of undecided voters

4. Small parties incorporation: adds external estimates for small parties not included in the transfer matrix or dificult to model

5. Manual adjustments application: manual discretionary expert adjustments to the estimates based on additional information or judgement

See also

Other main-functions: run_vota()

Other core-algorithms: fast_dhondt()