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Run Complete Electoral Simulation

run_vota.Rd

This function executes the complete VOTA system pipeline for Spanish electoral simulation, starting from national-level data.

Usage

run_vota(
  survey_data = NULL,
  input_path,
  output_file,
  uncertainty_method = c("mcmc", "bootstrap"),
  strategy = "top_down",
  nsims = 100,
  factor_correccion_abstencion = 3,
  factor_correccion_jovenes = 2.5,
  factor_correccion_otbl = 3,
  tiempo_entre_elecciones = 0.1,
  district_col,
  tau = 300,
  umbral = 0.03,
  tipo_umbral = "provincial",
  interval_level = 0.9,
  censo = NULL,
  verbose = TRUE,
  seed = NULL,
  ...
)

Arguments

survey_data

Data frame with individual survey data (required if uncertainty_method is "bootstrap")

input_path

Path to Excel input file with multiple sheets

output_file

Path to the output RDS file where the electo_fit object will be saved (e.g., "output/results.rds")

uncertainty_method

Type of input data: "bootstrap" or "mcmc"

strategy

Projection strategy: "top_down" or "bottom_up"

nsims

Number of Monte Carlo simulations for transfer matrices (or bootstrap replications if uncertainty_method is "bootstrap")

factor_correccion_abstencion

Abstention correction factor (default 3)

factor_correccion_jovenes

New voters correction factor (default 2.5)

factor_correccion_otbl

Other+blank votes intention correction factor (default 3)

tiempo_entre_elecciones

Years between elections for demographic adjustments

district_col

Name of column in survey_data indicating province or electoral district

tau

Parameter to control variability level of provincial party projection patterns (only needed if strategy is "top_down")

umbral

Minimum vote threshold for seat assignment (default 0.03)

tipo_umbral

Threshold type: "provincial", "autonomico" or "mixto" (default "provincial")

interval_level

Confidence level for uncertainty intervals (default 0.9)

censo

Optional data frame with census data per province (columns: codigo_provincia, censo_real). If NULL (default), census data is downloaded from INE using get_censo().

verbose

Show progress messages (default TRUE)

seed

Seed for reproducibility (default NULL)

...

Additional arguments for bootstrap internal function. The current accepted parameters are calib_vars and weights. Only used when uncertainty_method is "bootstrap"

Value

Object of class electo_fit with simulation results including:

estimacion

National vote estimates by party

estimacion_sims

National vote estimates simulations by party

estimacion_provincias_sims

Provincial results with assigned seats

mt_sims_pct

Transfer matrix simulations (percentages)

mt_sims_electores

Transfer matrix simulations (number of voters)

dhondt_output

Detailed D'Hondt allocation results

participacion_media

Estimated turnout percentage

metadata

Execution metadata

See also

Other main-functions: vota()