Project Estimates to Electoral District Level Projects national vote estimates to electoral district level using historical patterns and electoral census data.

Usage

project_to_districts(
  estimacion_previa_sims,
  patrones,
  n_seats,
  tau = 300,
  umbral = 0.03,
  tipo_umbral = "provincial",
  seed = NULL,
  censo = NULL
)

Arguments

estimacion_previa_sims: Data frame with national estimates by simulation
patrones: Data frame with electoral district patterns
n_seats: Data frame with number of seats per province
tau: Smoothing parameter for multinomial simulation (default 300)
umbral: Electoral threshold (default 0.03)
tipo_umbral: Type of threshold: "provincial", "autonomico" or "mixto" (default "provincial")
seed: Seed for reproducibility (optional)
censo: Optional data frame with census data (columns: codigo_provincia, censo_real). If NULL, downloaded from INE.

Value

Data frame with electoral district results including uncertainty simulations

Details

This process:

Applies district historical patterns to national estimates
Adjusts by real electoral census of each district
Generates additional simulations with multinomial uncertainty
Prepares data for D'Hondt allocation